第一次朝核危机的历史考察——基于美国新近解密档案的实证分析

A Historical Review of the First North Korean Nuclear Crisis—Based on the Empirical Analysis of Newly Declassified U. S. Archives

摘要:

朝鲜半岛当前的核危机是由第一次朝核危机升级而来。危机爆发后，美朝双方展开了首次公开双边谈判，并发表联合声明：朝鲜同意暂缓退出《不扩散核武器条约》,支持南北联合宣言中提出的朝鲜半岛无核化目标；美国郑重承诺不对朝鲜使用核武器和其他武力，不干涉朝鲜内政。然而，在第二轮会谈结束后，由于美朝在国际原子能机构核查、南北对话与特使交流方面无法达成一致，双边关系趋向紧张。朝鲜从反应堆拆除燃料棒，并拒绝国际检查员采集测试样本的举动使危机达到顶峰。由于担心朝鲜可能在被迫情况下采取极端行动，美国在不放弃外交和加强军事准备的前提下策划对朝空袭。此时，美国前总统卡特访朝传递出了朝鲜愿意重返外交谈判的信号，美朝借此契机回到谈判桌上，并达成了解决朝核问题的框架协议。但协议存在诸多隐忧，主要表现为：美国将对朝政策与整体外交战略挂钩，影响了解决朝核问题的一贯性；美国对朝政策需要兼顾韩国立场；美国对朝政策受到官僚政治制约。框架协议存在的问题也孕育着美朝关系和朝鲜半岛局势重趋紧张的可能性，为朝核问题的再次浮现埋下伏笔。

Abstract:

The current nuclear crisis on the Korean Peninsula stems from the escalation of the first North Korean nuclear crisis. After the crisis broke out the United States launched the first public high-level bilateral talks with North Korea. A joint statement was issued wherein North Korea agreed to temporarily suspend its withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty supported the denuclearization goal outlined in the South-North Joint Declaration and the United States solemnly pledged not to use nuclear weapons and other force against North Korea and not to interfere in its internal affairs. However after the second round of talks as North Korea focused its attention primarily on the United States the United States and North Korea were unable to reach an agreement on International Atomic Energy Agency verification North-South dialogue and exchanges of special envoys. U. S. -DPRK bilateral relations became tense. To avoid diplomatic impasse the United States decided to resume bilateral negotiations with North Korea and proposed a comprehensive agreement. This triggered strong opposition from South Korea. To alleviate South Korea?s concerns the United States decided to link the third round of U. S. -North Korea talks with the resumption of envoy exchanges between North and South Korea. The U. S. and North Korea reached a preliminary Super Tuesday agreement agreeing to take four measures on the same day. Nevertheless implementing the Super Tuesday agreement is fraught with challenges. On the one hand North Korea has accused the IAEA of demanding de facto routine and special inspections repeatedly claiming that it has a special status in the NPT and is not obligated to accept such inspections. On the other hand North Korea opposes the exchange of special envoys between North and South Korea as a prerequisite for launching the third round of high-level talks between the United States and North Korea. The breakdown of negotiations between North and South led to the collapse of the Super Tuesday agreement and the rapid deterioration of the situation on the Korean Peninsula. The crisis came to a head when North Korea removed fuel rods from the reactor and refused to allow international inspectors to collect test samples. Fearing that North Korea might take extreme actions under pressure the U. S. planned airstrikes against North Korea without abandoning diplomacy and strengthening military preparations. At this critical juncture former U. S. President Carter?s visit to North Korea sent a signal that North Korea was willing to return to diplomatic negotiations. Seizing this opportunity the U. S. and North Korea returned to the negotiating table and reached a framework agreement to address the North Korean nuclear issue. However there are many concerns in the agreement mainly as follows the U. S. policy toward North Korea is linked to its overall foreign strategy which affects the consistency of resolving the North Korean nuclear issue the U. S. policy toward North Korea needs to take South Korea ? s position into consideration and the U. S. policy toward North Korea is restricted by bureaucratic politics. The problems inherent in the Framework Agreement also laid the groundwork for new tensions in U. S. -North Korea relations and the situation on the Korean Peninsula leading to the re-emergence of the North Korean nuclear issue.