乡村振兴过程中规模性返贫的风险测度 ———基于重大突发公共卫生事件对脆弱农户家庭收入冲击的考察

Measuring the Risks of a Large-scale Return to Poverty in Rural Revitalization—Based on the Impact of Major Public Health Emergencies on the Income of Vulnerable Rural Households

摘要:

不发生规模性返贫，是全面推进乡村振兴的底线任务。重大突发公共卫生事件会对农户生计产生系统性风险冲击，导致更大概率的规模性返贫发生。通过考察重大突发公共卫生事件对脆弱农户家庭收入的冲击，判断其风险应对能力大小，为测度评估乡村振兴过程中的规模性返贫风险提供了一个重要的切入视角。鉴于此，基于A省968户脆弱农户实地调查数据，运用倾向得分匹配法(PSM),有效评估了重大突发公共卫生事件对脆弱农户家庭纯收入、经营性收入、工资性收入以及转移性收入的冲击效应，并且比较了冲击效应在不同家庭贫困属性、家庭健康状况以及家庭劳动力资本下的组群差异，以此来实现科学测度乡村振兴过程中规模性返贫风险的研究目标。研究结果表明：其一，虽然脆弱农户家庭纯收入经受住了重大突发公共卫生事件的冲击，但更多依靠的是政府转移性收入的帮助，只要政府转移性收入发生变化，脆弱农户的家庭收入就可能会受到冲击。其二，通过组群差异分析发现，在重大外生风险冲击下，应更关注非贫困、身体健康状况良好以及劳动力资本较为充沛的脆弱农户。其三，根据分析结果，应从重视_“造血_”功能、构筑产业防线和优化政策体系三方面激发农户内生动力、提高风险应对能力、实现共同富裕。

Abstract:

Rural revitalization is a key project for China to achieve modernization and avoiding large-scale poverty is the bottom line of promoting rural revitalization in an all-round way. This paper discusses the risk of large-scale impoverishment in the process of rural revitalization and answers a core question Will major public health emergencies cause large-scale impoverishment in the process of rural revitalization At present，the risk of a return to large-scale poverty in China is hidden in vulnerable rural groups especially among those who have just emerged from poverty but whose position is far from secure and those on the verge of poverty who can fall back in again easily. Major public health emergencies with their unpredictable risks and continuous cycles of breakouts are becoming the most serious factor that may cause these groups to fall back into poverty. Therefore，it is necessary to measure the impact of major public health emergencies on the scale of poverty，to ensure that a return to large-scale poverty will not occur. Previous studies have revealed the mechanism of falling back into large-scale poverty in the process of rural revitalization ，the defects with rural response to major public health emergencies，and proposed measures for optimization. Most of these researches analyze the risk of a return to poverty in the process of rural revitalization from a macro perspective，but few of them can scientifically assess the scale of this risk. However，we find that income is an important indicator of poverty vulnerability which determines the strength of rural households? risk coping ability，and provides an important perspective for effectively assessing the risk of large-scale return to poverty. To measure the risk of large-scale return to poverty caused by major public health emergencies，we use the propensity score matching method（PSM）to scientifically estimate the impact of major public health emergencies on the net income operating income wage income and transfer income of vulnerable rural households based on the field survey data of 968 vulnerable rural households in A province. Moreover，the impact effects of different family poverty attributes family health status and family labor capital are compared. Our empirical analysis shows that：First，although the net income of vulnerable farmers has withstood the impact of major public health emergencies，they rely more on the help of government transfer income. As long as the government transfer income changes，the family income of vulnerable farmers may be affected. Second，through the analysis of group differences ， it is found that under the impact of major exogenous risks more attention should be paid to rural households that are not poor have good health status and have relatively abundant labor and capital. Based on the above empirical findings，it is necessary to stimulate the endogenous motivation of rural households，improve their ability to respond to risks and achieve common prosperity from three aspects：attaching importance to the hematopoietic function，building an industrial defense line and optimizing the policy system.