自我限定的同盟困境:美日多维度防卫合作与日本的战略选择

Self-bound Alliance’s Dilemma: USA-Japan Multi-domain Defense Cooperation and Japan’s Strategic Choice

摘要:

日本提出建设 “多维度综合防卫力”, 通过主动调整国内防卫政策, 消除同盟的不确定性, 以 确保周边环境的所谓 “安全”, 这是在美日同盟结构限制下的被动战略选择。 日本自主调整防卫政策推动了 美日防卫合作向着多维度方向发展。 被重新建构的美日同盟规范, 又会限制日本的战略选择。 日本对美日同 盟的依赖决定了它的选择方向, 而选择又进一步加深了依赖并持续循环, 使日本陷于自我限定的同盟困境。 尽管日本一直有着 “被牵连的担忧”, 但受到同盟规范的束缚, 日本的选择空间将越来越小, 被卷入盟国与 他国冲突的可能性将越来越大。 近期日本在 “四国机制”、 俄乌冲突等问题上的积极态度已经表明, 身陷同 盟困境的日本很难超越 “被抛弃的恐惧”, 最终会越来越倾向于追随盟国介入军事行动。

Abstract:

Japan_’s construction of Multi-domain Defense Force is actually a passive strategic choice under USA-Japan alliance structure. Japan had kept worrying about the uncertainty of USA-Japan alliance. In order to clear up the uncertainty of alliance and to ensure security environment，Japan adjusted its domestic defense policy positively to support USA_’s _“Joint All-domain Operations_” to maintain technical advantage for USA global hegemony，which brought about the reconstruction of USA-Japan alliance. What_’s more，the reconstruction of USA-Japan alliance will lead to the restriction of strategic choice of Japan，making Japan depend more and more on USA. First，Although Multi-domain Defense Force construction of Japan will increase Japan_’s share of USA-Japan comprehensive defense competence，but it cannot exactly shorten the distance between Japan and its_“adversary_”，which does not mean Japan can win its_“adversary_” even when it achieves its goal in defense force construction. Secondly，Multi-domain Defense Force construction of Japan will improve USA_’s assistance competence as Japan_’s ally. _“Joint All-domain Operations_” and_“Multi-domain Defense Force_” will lead to high integration of military technology，making the ally_’s military operation be decided more easily and happen more possibly. Therefore，as Japan_’s ally，USA’s assistance competence will also increase substantially. Third，the Japanese defense policy will make Japanese government treat neighboring countries with the attitude of hostility. Therefore，Japan will be more dependent on USA，and Japan_’s worry about entrapment will be less useful to prevent military operation from happening. Lastly，since USA-Japan alliance is not only the standard but also an important purpose for Japan to seek an alliance，Japan_’s realignment alternatives are restrictive. The dependence on USA will determine Japan_’s choice，while choice will deepen the dependence again，and the interaction will repeat continually，making Japan be stuck in the dilemma of self-bound alliance. Therefore，although Japan is actually worried about being entrapped to the conflicts by USA，the restriction of alliance regulation will compress Japan_’s space for choosing and make it more and more possible for Japan to be entrapped to the conflicts which might happen between USA and its adversaries. The worry about entrapment will at last be restricted by the fear of abandonment. Japanese government_’s positive attitude on_“QUAD_” and Russia-Ukraine conflict has shown that it will be difficult for Japanese government to overcome such alliance dilemma; instead，it will finally tend to take actions following USA.