三次大变局与人类命运 ——从知识生产到生活形态的巨变

The Three Great Changes and Human Destiny —The Great Changes from Knowledge Production to Forms of Living

摘要:

基于知识生产是人类最基础、 最重要的活动这一命题, 可以建立理解人类文明的理论坐标, 并 借之描述文明史的基本变迁。 人类已经历两次大变局, 第一次是轴心时代, 第二次是现代转型, 而第三次尚 处于早期。 在第三次人类大变局中, 在知识生产层面, 机器可以进行间接知识生产; 在劳动形态层面, 重复 劳动被大量替代; 在经济形态层面, 商品经济很可能被打破; 在政治形态层面, 技术权力可能成为独立主 体; 在生活形态层面, 个体可能成为技术奴隶。 第三次大变局正在改变人类文明的基本矛盾, 使之从人与自 然的矛盾和人与人的矛盾演变为人与技术的矛盾, 即人性很可能无法驾驭飞速发展的技术并最终导致人类文 明困局。 第三次大变局是人类史上的最大变局, 存在许多风险和不确定性, 而现代文明并未作好应对准备。

Abstract:

Based on the proposition that knowledge production is the most basic and important activity of human beings we can establish the theoretical coordinates to understand human civilization by which we can describe the basic changes in the history of civilization. Mankind has gone through two great changes. The first is the Axial Age and the second is the Modern Transformation. The third great human change is still in its early stage. Machines can produce knowledge indirectly repetitive labor is replaced largely the commodity economy is likely to be broken technical power may become an independent subject and individuals may become technical slaves. The third great change is changing the basic contradiction of human civilization from the contradiction between man and nature and between man and man to the contradiction between man and technology that is human nature will possibly be unable to control the rapidly developing technology resulting in the dilemma of human civilization. As the biggest change in human history the third great change will bring about many risks and uncertainties and modern civilization is not well prepared to deal with them.